Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

I haven't commented about Afghanistan in a long time, and with everything that's happened; the disputed election, the turmoil that followed, plus Covid, it's no wonder Afghanistan isn't front page news.

However, as I expected, the Biden administration has announced that they don't feel obliged to abide by the terms of the peace accord that Trump signed with the Taliban, and it's very likely that U.S. troops will remain in Afghanistan- indefinitely. 

First, note something of great importance: The whole world should realize now: that signing an accord with the United States only applies to the current administration. Trump did it too, of course. The first thing he did was denounce the peace accord that Obama had with Iran. His doing that, and other provocations, almost took us to war with Iran. It got very close, and it very easily could have happened.

So, Biden is just doing the same thing that Trump did, except he's doing it to Trump.

But, let's look at the situation in Afghanistan. It's a disaster. The war has continued. The Taliban has not let up its violence against the Afghan government. But, they never said they would. They said that the peace accord was between them and the U.S. They never said they were going to stop fighting the Afghan government, although they did say they would engage in talks with them, which they have.

But, nothing good has come of it. Progress has been zero. And the Taliban have made it clear that, basically, the Afghan government has to dissolve. They want a new government, and one that is properly Islamic. They want a theocracy- something as theocratic as the government of Iran.  

But, the Biden administration is in a spot because if they don't get out by May, then the Taliban may very well start attacking Americans again. And there are only 2500 of them there. So, their ability to defend themselves is limited. Therefore, if Biden is really bent on breaking the treaty (and he'll say that the Taliban broke it) he is probably going to have to increase the troop levels again. 

So, as we approach the 20th anniversary of this disastrous war (on October 7)  it may be that escalation is what is going to mark it. 

So, we are at a crucial turning point, a fork in the road. Are we going to get out, or are we going to inflame and enlarge the war? I regret to say that I think it's going to be the latter.