Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

Like others, I continue to be staggered by what is happening in Ukraine. I have to wonder what outcome Putin was expecting. What was his best case scenario? There wasn't any. Even if he succeeded to oust the current government from Kiev, that wouldn't end the war. The U.S. ousted the Taliban from Kabul, but that didn't end that war. It just resulted in a 20 year insurgency. And if we had stayed there, the insurgency would have continued for another 20 years and beyond. 

The same is true in Ukraine but in spades because the whole world will support the Ukrainians with money, weapons, and even manpower. People are going over there to fight with the Ukrainians, including Americans. 

This was all foreseeable. There never was an end-point. The best Russia could have hoped for was a state of perpetual war. 

In other words, militarily, victory is out of the question. It is impossible. Putin should have known it. I presume he is mentally ill. But, the Russian Military is vast, and they can't all be mentally ill. So, how could they all go along with it?

It is my sincere belief that no one has a right to start a war. Even if you have legitimate grievances, it doesn't give you a right go into another country and start shooting and bombing. Of course, the U.S. did it in Afghanistan and Iraq, and we largely got away with it. But, Russia is not going to get away with it. I don't know how long it will take Ukraine to recover, but I'm sure they will recover. But, I have no basis to think Russia will ever recover.