Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

Russia starting the war in Ukraine was terribly misguided. It was the result of one man's paranoia. Anger and paranoia. Putin was angry about Ukraine joining NATO, and he had a right to be. But, it didn't give him the right to start a war. Do you know what gives you the right to start a war? Nothing. If someone else starts one, you have the right to defend yourself. That's it. 

The U.S. had no right to start the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq. Were they as bad as this? Yes, of course. 

So, I understand the gung-ho attitude people have in supporting Ukraine. But, just because Russia made a grievous error and miscalculation, doesn't mean that we should be unrealistic about Ukraine's prospects. They are not going to be able to drive the Russians out of Crimea. That is out of the question. The Russians will do whatever it takes to prevent it, including doing Shock and Awe on Kiev and every other major Ukrainian city. THE RUSSIANS WOULD NUKE UKRAINE BEFORE GIVING UP CRIMEA.

Crimea is Russia's sole port on the Baltic. Ethnic Russians are the majority population in Crimea, most of whom willingly became Russian citizens. Russia built the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Crimea to Russia at a cost of $4 billion. The West ridiculed it as Putin's Folly, but it was a great engineering feat.

Knowing that Putin considers Crimea absolutely vital to Russia's national security, and that it is a source of great national pride to the Russian people for Crimea to be Russian, there is NO CHANCE that he will give it up. He will use whatever amount of force is necessary to hold on to it. He will rain as much destruction down on Ukraine as is needed to make it logistically impossible for Ukraine to wage war to retake Crimea. In other words, they will be too busy putting out fires and digging people out of rubble in Kiev, Kharkiv and other cities to wage war in Crimea. 

So, the people who are egging Ukraine to fight to take back Crimea, they remind me of Raquel Pennington's corner at UFC 224, who goaded her to go back out for a 5th round against Amanda Nunes, only to suffer one of the hellacious beatings ever, including a badly broken nose. And in that case, she pleaded with her coaches that she was done, but they insisted that she go back out there, only to be brutalized like something out of the Spanish Inquisition. What bastards. I curse them. 

But, that is what is going to happen to Ukraine if they attack  Crimea. Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, don't do it.