Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

Ha! I did it. I found the new website of the Taliban. It went from alemarah-english.com to alemarah-english.org. But, I didn't find it by just thinking of that and trying it. It was much more roundabout. But, the important thing is: I found it. 

And just as I suspected: all the hoopla of recent days about a breakthrough to end the war in Afghanistan, reported widely by the U.S. press, is hype. There has actually been very little progress. 

And the fighting in Afghanistan has continued. Look:

So, the Taliban has not let up their attacks. And they generally go after military, police, and government officials of the Afghan government- rather than the U.S. Military.  

But first, here are samples of the recent hoopla in the Western press about peace progress:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-peace-talks-between-us-taliban-havent-articulated-a-long-term-vision

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghan-president-calls-for-direct-talks-with-taliban-us-tentatively-agrees-on-framework-that-could-lead-to-troop-withdrawal/2019/01/28/23ecbaba-22f9-11e9-81fd-b7b05d5bed90_story.html?utm_term=.62cceeff12bc

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/26/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-peace-deal.html

So,  PBS, the Washington Post, and the NY Times, and plenty of other media have been hyping the new hope for peace in Afghanistan.  But, here is what the Taliban is saying about it:

So, what the Taliban wants is a complete withdrawal of all U.S. and foreign forces. But notice that it says that agreement on a ceasefire and talks with the Kabul administration are "not true." So, they are sticking to their guns that they won't talk to the "puppets" or "quislings."  But, if you read the American statements, they say that the Taliban has to do that. 

The U.S. government is in a tough spot. It's clear that they want the war to end.  But, they want an ending in which they can save face. They don't want it to appear that the U.S. lost, as we did in Vietnam. But, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan is calling what is going on now a "surrender negotiation" where we are the one surrendering. 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/31/politics/ryan-crocker-afghanistan-war-cnntv/index.html

And he's right. The very fact that we are trying to negotiate with the Taliban is an admission that we can't beat them. Today, the Taliban controls as much land in Afghanistan as they did in 2001 despite our being there. 

The U.S. claims the Taliban has agreed not to let terrorist groups like ISIS operate in Afghanistan, as if it's a concession. But, that's nonsense. The Taliban has always denied doing it. They say they have always opposed ISIS. If you say you've never done something, how hard is it to say you won't do it? 


So, if that's the only concession they've made- to stop supporting ISIS- then they haven't conceded anything.  It's pure spin.

But, here is what the U.S. wants: they want the Taliban to phase into and work with the current Afghan government, where Taliban members can start running for office.  And of course, it would have to be supervised- by us or by our proxies. 

So, the U.S. would like to see, first, a ceasefire. Then, the U.S. would begin a slow withdrawal. The timespan of 18 months has been bandied. But, we'd like to leave a small residual force there indefinitely, "to protect the U.S. Embassy" etc. 

Well, the Taliban is NEVER going to agree to that. They are never going to recognize the legitimacy of the current Afghan government. They are never going to let us remain there, even in the tiniest capacity.  And, they are never going to agree to a ceasefire until a schedule of U.S. withdrawal is nailed down and committed to, and I suspect they are going to want it to happen sooner rather than later.  

But, if they won't cooperate with the current Afghan government, what do they expect to happen there as per government? 

Well, I suspect that they expect the current government to dissolve, and for them, the Taliban, to take over and replace the current government. The Taliban already administers in a government-like way throughout much of Afghanistan, and that includes police, courts, and a public welfare system.  So, they would just expand it into Kabul, and that would be it. 

That's what I gather, but read through their website yourself and see what you think.  By the way, it says that the website is "not secure" but I don't pay it any mind.  

http://www.alemarah-english.org/ 

But, the point is that the U.S. is nursing a pipe dream. The Taliban is never going to integrate with the current government. Forget it. It isn't going to happen. 

I regret to say that the only positive thing about the recent talks between the U.S. and the Taliban is that they happened: that they are talking to each other. If you want to say that's progress, fine. But other than that, there is no progress and no prospects for peace in Afghanistan.