John, no doubt that they were watching Oswald constantly, stalking him, and for quite a while. In the weeks before the assassination, it was probably around the clock. And I'm sure that he was being watched and followed constantly throughout the day on the 22nd.
So, why would they let him step outside? It was actually just 3 feet outside the door. Its a small doorway, and it was even smaller then. And I'm sure they had someone there to prevent him from going any farther than he did. That person was Bill Shelley. Shelley was US Army Intelligence and then CIA. So, how's a guy like that going to be satisfied working at a company which distributed Dick and Jane readers for little kids? It was just a front, John. The TSBD was a CIA front company. And the go-to person on that is William Weston, whom I have corresponded with.
But, why let him wander around freely at all? Why didn't they give him some reason to hide? It certainly would have been better for the story if nobody saw him from 12:00 on. But, I think the reason they didn't is because they knew it was possible that he would spend time in custody and be interrogated. So, what if he told police that so-and-so told him to hide somewhere? Obviously, they would want to talk to so-and-so. You can't assume that everyone in the Dallas PD was in on it. Some for sure were like Westbrook and Roscoe White. But certainly not all.
Furthermore, if they had told Oswald to do something highly unusual, it might have tipped him off. He wasn't stupid. And it certainly would have helped him figure it out sooner.
So, I think it was a calculated decision when they let people see him downstairs when he should have been up on the 6th floor, but I suspect they planned all along that, if worst came to worst, they would use threats and intimidation to silence such witnesses.
So, Oswald eats lunch in the first floor lunch room in the 12:10 to 12:20 time frame and he cites Junior Jarman and Harold Norman as being around at the time. They did not confirm seeing him, but they did admit that that's where they were at the time. So, out of 70 employees, Oswald accurately named two who were in fact there when he was.
From there, he goes to the doorway. A very important witness who saw him there was Carolyn Arnold. She said that after she went outside (and she was one of the last to get out there) she turned around and saw Oswald between the double doors, meaning, at the doorway. Remember that the door and the whole wall were glass, translucent glass. So, he was watching at that point through the glass, though he hadn't crossed the threshold yet. The time was 12:25, though the FBI agent wrote down 12:15.
So, Oswald goes through the front door right at 12:25. He remains at the top of the doorway, on the landing. Shelley was in front of him on steps- although he lied and said he was back in the shadows. There could very well have been someone else besides Shelley whose job it was to make sure Oswald did not proceed any further.
You are certainly right that the 2nd floor lunch room was the best place for Oswald to be found which could be linked to the 6th floor. Actually, it was the only reasonable place to send him. I'm sure they didn't just get lucky that he went there, and I'm sure they weren't going to depend on luck for that.
So, at some point, Shelley must have told Oswald to go to the lunch room, and it was probably just before he did. And it had to be early. It could have been just before the fatal head shot, or otherwise immediately after the fatal head shot. That's because Oswald had to beat Baker to the lunch room without being winded or even flustered. That means Oswald didn't run. Oswald walked at a comfortable pace. But, Baker ran. We can see him running in the Couch film. And he looked like a fit individual. That means that Oswald had to have a considerable head-start on Baker, which means he had to leave the doorway early.
But, there may have been a commotion connected with it. Here's the evidence for that: We know that Dave Wiegman, the NBC cameraman was riding in the press car. He was filming straight ahead on Elm after making the horseshoe turn. But then, for some reason, he swung around to his right to do a second pan of the doorway. Why did he do that when all the action was down Elm Street? He must have either heard something, a commotion, or seen something, a ruckus, through the corner of his eye, in the doorway, and that's why he swung around.
So, perhaps it wasn't smooth-going for Shelley. Perhaps Oswald resisted a little. But, he did leave.
Finally, what did Shelley say to get Oswald to leave? It is entirely a speculation. But, your idea isn't bad. Maybe Shelley did say something like, "For your own good, you better get out of here."
One last thing: according to reporter Elsie Glaze (who was male) who interviewed Shelley extensively in the 1970s, Shelley admitted to him that he got arrested briefly after the assassination and taken to the PD for processing. It was quickly resolved; Shelley was released; and there was no formal record made of his arrest. They just dropped the whole thing. Obviously, somebody from above intervened. But still, under the circumstances, I'd love to know what provoked it in the first place.
Hey, take a look at the latest work of our Chairman, Larry Rivera. He has completed the most modern and sophisticated photo analysis available to forensic science to determine if two images are that of the same man, and the results are riveting.
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