Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

I would like to report on Afghanistan. Both teams are in Doha. The Taliban announced a new chief negotiator, a high judge from their judicial system. They had their first meeting amongst themselves. The government team is also there, but they called for a short delay before the talks begin to iron out some difficulties. Apparently, there is going to be an opening ceremony with rituals and speeches, and both flags waving, the Afghan govt flag and the Taliban flag. The top US negotiator Zamay Zahlilzad, who negotiated the peace deal with the Taliban, will be present, but only as an observer. Apparently, the talks could start any day now, even as soon as tomorrow. 

But, it is rather telling that the Taliban website isn't saying a word about it. They continue to report on the ongoing fighting in Afghanistan, where there is no ceasefire, despite the imminent talks. 

So, what is likely to happen? First, how did it get this far? It got this far because the U.S. finally agreed to get completely out of Afghanistan as part of the peace deal, and in exchange for that huge concession, the Taliban agreed to talk to the government, something they said they would never do. 

So, both sides made major concessions, though I'd say the Taliban got more out of that deal. Because just because they are going to talk to the "puppet government" which they consider illegitimate (they call them Quislings, if you know your WW2 history) it doesn't mean they have to give them a damn thing. 

So, here's what I predict. I predict that the Taliban is going to say there has to be a whole new government with no connections to the Americans. It has to be an Islamic government, run by Sharia law. And I predict they will recommend certain religious leaders who are respected in Afghanistan and not just by the Taliban. All top officials of the current government must go, including Ghani. Low level people can stay, assuming they take an oath to the new government and the religious principles on which it is based.

Will they allow popular elections at all? I don't know, but if they do, I think they will wade into it slowly, allowing some low level positions be determined that way, but not the top positions. They want a theocracy.  The Pope isn't chosen by a popular election among Catholics.

Will they make concessions about girls going to school and women being able to function in the society, with responsible jobs, etc.? I don't know, but if they do it at all, they are going to wade into it slowly. 

But regardless, they are going to demand that the current government cease to exist. 

Now, the wild card in this is Zahlilzad. He's going to be talking to both sides between innings. He'll tell the Taliban to give a little. It doesn't have to be much, but make some concessions, because if you do, it's going to mean MONEY. You want to rebuild the country, right? We'll pay, for it, billions and billions, but you've got to give a little, just a little. Then, to Ghani, he's going to tell him to pack his bags, that the future of Afghanistan does not include him as President. 

Now, that's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is that no progress is made, and the fighting between the Taliban and the Afghan continues past next April with no end in sight. What will the US do if it comes to that? Will we leave in April? It depends on who is President. If Biden is President, I predict not. And he'll use the same reason that Trump used to get out of the nuclear deal with Iran: "I didn't sign it." 

If Trump gets re-elected, there is no certainty, but I predict he will get us out of Afghanistan. I think he is that determined to do it.