The Western articles have been saying that America is holding out for partial withdrawal, but with the expectation of keeping a counter-terrorism force there indefinitely, the start of intra-Afghan talks between the Taliban and the government, and a complete ceasefire.
I don't know how they can expect that when the Taliban has been saying, for years, and adamantly, that they will never work with the current government whom they call "puppets" and "quislings"; that all foreign troops must get out of Afghanistan, and that they won't cease firing so long as the current government exists.
And then as for guaranteeing that Afghanistan won't be used by terrorist groups to stage their attacks, how can the Trump administration or anyone else think that the Taliban is capable of guaranteeing that? And that's why Trump says we need the residual force there, but they couldn't guarantee it either. The U.S. can't control terrorism among its own citizens at home. So, how are a few thousands U.S. soldiers going to know what is going on in every nook, cranny, and cave in Afghanistan?
And they definitely are not abandoning the Afghan government because NATO announced today that regardless of what the United States does and promises the Taliban, that they, NATO, will continue supporting, training, and financing the Afghan government for as long as necessary. And the U.S. pays most of the bills of NATO, so it's just going to be a hand-off. It will be British and Dutch soldiers doing it instead of Americans.
The idea that the Taliban is going to accept all of this is beyond unbelievable. And if the Taliban does accept it all, it will mean that identity does not exist. A is not A. It will be the most spectacular flip-flop I have ever seen in my life, and that is said as someone who reads the Taliban website every day.
As I see it, the most they could accept is us leaving Afghanistan over a fixed time frame with no residual force left behind. We don't get to back the Afghan government any more militarily. So, no more smart bombs, drones, MOABS, etc. The Taliban gets to keep fighting the Afghan government with no cease-fire and no discussion of working together.
I see that as the most that they can do and still be consistent with what they have been saying for years. Even at this late date and amid all the hoopla, I can't see them doing one bit more than that.
And it's not that I hope that they don't. I sincerely hope that they do because the more peace and the less war there is, the better. But, I am speaking cognitively, trying to make sense of what the Western reports are saying, and I just can't do it. I just can't imagine that the Taliban would reverse themselves and capitulate to the U.S. after all this time. And if they gave us all that, that's what it would be: capitulation.
Another interesting wrinkle is that both Russia and China have offered to step in as a "guaranteeor" of the agreement, "to make sure both sides fulfill their commitments." But, how could they do that? If Trump so easily broke the agreement with Iran, (and I realize it was made by another President, not him, but it was made by the United States) then why assume that after the "14 to 24 months" that the deal would stipulate as the final departure date for the last U.S. trrops to leave, that he wouldn't change his mind again and say that "facts on the ground" make it necessary to stay?
Well, it's all very intriguing. I am waiting for this the way some people wait for the lottery numbers to be announced.
And if it contains much less, such as, just an agreement to end hostilities between the US and the Taliban, and for the US to withdraw some troops right away and the rest within a relatively short time frame, and probably a commitment to intra-Afghan dialogue but not with government officials in their official capacity and not with Ghani at all, then it will not only seem like a capitulation by the United States, but it will make the prior reporting seem like outright lies.
So, what the hell is going to happen????
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