Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

It is important to remember that we are dealing with two separate and distinct things: the matching of the man, and the matching of the clothing. 

So, one involves matching the physical and anatomical features and then as a totally independent and non-overlapping confirmation, we compare the clothing. 

And on both counts, the match is to Lee Harvey Oswald. 

You know that the world of men is big, that the range in size, shape, and features is not only vast but potentially unlimited because of the way genetics works. So, what are the mathematical odds that someone else looked that much like Lee Harvey Oswald? They must be infinitesimal. But, just for the sake of demonstration, let's say they were 1 in 100. 

The world of men's clothing isn't nearly as big as that, but it's still plenty big. Dooman is wearing a long-sleeved outer shirt that is unbuttoned, and not only unbuttoned, but sprawled open, gaped open, resulting in the exposure of his white t-shirt which has a low, descending, vee-like margin. 

Now, what are the odds that someone else would also be dressed like that? They have to be extremely small, but again, just for the sake of demonstration, let's say 1 in 50. 

I hope you understand that the 100 and the 50 don't get added; they get multiplied. The odds that someone would look that much like Oswald and also be dressed that much like Oswald would be 1 in 5000, based on those assumptions. However, I think the odds for each are much smaller than what I proposed. The real odds of this much likeness in man and clothing between Oswald and somebody else is 1 in many tens of thousands, and possibly hundreds of thousands, and it may even be a million to one shot.   

So, when people glibly deny the obvious, that it was Oswald in the doorway,  I say it's either because they are lying OR because they are engaged in self-delusion, self-deception- a stubborn rejection of reality, and for motives that only they know. 

But, Mathematics is objective and unbiased, and Mathematics is telling us that it was Oswald in the doorway.