Oswald in the doorway: the blog of the Oswald Innocence Campaign, by Ralph Cinque

Calling Richard Charnin. We need a mathematician's eye to look at this.

First, we have the likeness between Danny Arce and the figure at the training camp, and what makes it compelling is not just the likeness, which is extreme, but the fact that they were both clandestine CIA operations. That is, the JFK assassination and he training camps for anti-Castro Cubans were both clandestine CIA operations. If one was, say, a family picnic, the match would still be compelling but not nearly as much.

So, you have an overlapping set there, and that goes with the physical likeness, and one that reaches the point of having no visible disconnects, which is a very high point of likeness.

However, the finding of the second matching guy takes it up to a whole new level. The difference can be likened to the difference between getting one number right in the lottery and getting two numbers right. How much harder is it to get two numbers right? It's a lot harder. But, this is infinitely harder than that because in a lottery, there are usually only 45 numbers comprising the total pool, but in this case, the total pool consists of what? Millions of young men, right? That's a vast pool, isn't it? What does it do to the odds?