Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Trump won handily in New York, as expected. They're currently saying that he's going to get all but 3 delegates, which will go to Kasich, with none going to Cruz. The states that follow next Tuesday are mostly northeastern, and Trump is expected to do well in them too.

So, here is where I think things stand: By voting for Trump, the Republican electorate are basically telling the Republican leaders to go fuck themselves. People are fed up- more so than ever before. Trump is doing well because he's not really regarded as a politician. What is happening now is UNPRECEDENTED. Never before has an anti-establishment candidate done so well, and never before has the Establishment tried so hard to stop him. They are throwing everything they've got at him, but it isn't working. 

So, what's going to happen? Here's my prediction:

Trump is going to secure enough delegates to get the nomination. How are they going to stop him? There is NO CHANCE of Cruz or Kasich beating him at the ballot box. And, if the Republican brass tries to steal the nomination from Trump through shenanigans, it won't work. Imagine, how all the Trump voters would feel. They're going to feel outraged, as well as enraged. And Trump won't stand for it.  And remember who he is. He's no Al Gore. If they just try to steal the nomination from Trump with convention shenanigans, it's going to end badly; dangerously badly. I really hope they don't. 

But, here's what I think is more likely to happen.  I think Trump is going to take the nomination, and when it's clear at the Republican convention that Trump has got it cinched, the Republican leaders are going to bail. They are not going to endorse him. After everything they've said about him, how could they? So, I think they are literally going to walk out, and there will be no one left but Trump supporters at the convention. 

I think Hillary is going to win for the Democrats, and when she does, a lot of leading Republicans are going to endorse her. 

So, I predict that Romney, McCain, and other Republican stalwarts are going to come out for Hillary and maybe even campaign for her in the general election. Of course, there will be an all-out, well-organized media campaign for her as well. Republican newspapers in Republican states are going to come out for Hillary. 

So, who is going to win in the general election between Trump and Hillary? Under normal conditions, I would say Trump, but because of all the consolidation that is going to take place around Hillary, it's going to even the playing field and make it a close call. Maybe too close to call.  Again, this is all very unprecedented. We are living in very interesting times. 


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